首页  青年英才工程

金亦帅 / JIN Yishuai

副教授，硕士生导师

出生年月：1991.11

研究方向：气候可预报性，热带气候动力学

联系方式：jinyishuai@ouc.edu.cn


个人履历：

2009年9月-2013年7月毕业于南京信息工程大学气象学专业；2013年9月-2019年1月获得北京大学物理学院大气与海洋科学系气象学博士学位；2019年1月到2020年11月于北京大学物理学院进行博士后研究。2020年12月至今任职于物理海洋教育部重点实验室，副教授。


研究方向及成果：

　　长期从事气候可预报性的工作，尤其是在ENSO的季节可预报性和春季预报障碍方向，开展了一系列的理论研究，并将该理论应用于天气尺度的预报中。主要的研究成果：1）利用简单模型从理论上验证了预报技巧跟“真值”的可预报性的关系。该理论反驳了传统观点中认为“完美模式预报技巧总是高于实际预报技巧”。2）利用简单模型，从理论上证明热带太平洋地区背景场的季节变化是引起ENSO春季预报障碍的原因，从而揭示了引起该现象的物理机制，解释21世纪以来ENSO预报能力变化的可能原因。3）揭示热带太平洋区域表层海温和次表层热容量的季节可预报性的关系。4）提出了天气预报中同样存在着预报障碍的特征。



代表性论著：

第一作者/通讯作者（*）文章

25. Hui Chen#, Jin, Y.*#, Liu, Z.*, Sun. D.*, Chen, X., McPhaden, M. J., Capotondi, A., Lin, X. (2024). Central-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation less predictable under greenhouse warming. Nature Communications (Accepted).  

24. Pang, Y., Jin, Y.*, Zhao, Y., Chen, X., Li, X., Liu, T., & Hu, J. (2023). Sea surface salinity strongly weakens ENSO spring predictability barrier. Geophysical Research Letters, 50(23), e2023GL106673. 

23. Jin, Y., Xing Meng, Li Zhang*, Yingying Zhao*, Wenju Cai, Lixin Wu (2023). The Indian Ocean weakens ENSO Spring Predictability Barrier: Role of the Indian Ocean Basin and Dipole modes. Journal of Climate, 36 (24), 8331-8345.  

22. Hui Chen, Jin, Y.*, Shen, X., Lin, X., Hu, R. (2023). El Niño and La Niña asymmetry in short-term predictability on springtime initial condition. Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 6, 121. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00446-8. 

21. Zhao, Y, Jin, Y.*, Capotondi, A., Jianping Li, Daoxuan Sun (2023). The Role of Tropical Atlantic in ENSO Predictability Barrier. Geophysical Research Letters, 50(7), https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101853. 

20. Zhao, Y, Jin, Y.*, Jianping Li, Capotondi, A. (2022). The Role of Extratropical Pacific in Crossing ENSO Spring Predictability Barrier. Geophysical Research Letters, 49(15), e2022GL099488

19. Jin, Y.*, Zhengyu Liu, Wansuo Duan (2022) .The different relationships between ENSO spring Persistence Barrier and Predictability Barrier. Journal of Climate, 35(18), 6207-6218. 

18. Jin, Y.* (2022) The signal-to-noise Paradox in ENSO prediction: Role of ENSO growth rate and period. Geophysical Research Letters, 49(12), e2022GL097965. 

17. Hui Chen, Jian Shi*, Jin, Y.* et al. (2021). Warm and cold episodes in western Pacific warm pool and their linkage with ENSO asymmetry and diversity. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 126(12), e2021JC017287.

16. Jin, Y.*, Liu, Z., & McPhaden, M. J. (2021). A Theory of the Spring Persistence Barrier on ENSO. Part III: The Role of Tropical Pacific Ocean Heat Content. Journal of Climate, 34(21), 8567-8577.

15. Peng W, Jin, Y.*, Z. Liu (2021) A Diurnal Predictability Barrier for Weather Forecasts. Monthly Weather Review, 149 (6) 1715-1723.

14. Jin, Y.*, Liu, Z., He, C., & Zhao, Y. (2021). On the Formation Mechanism of the Seasonal Persistence Barrier. Journal of Climate, 34(2), 479-494.

13. Jin, Y.*, & Liu, Z. (2021). A Theory of the Spring Persistence Barrier on ENSO. Part I: The Role of ENSO Period. Journal of Climate, 34(6), 2145-2155.

12. Jin, Y.*, Z. Liu (2021). A theory of the Spring Persistence Barrier on ENSO. Part II: Persistence Barriers in SST and Ocean Heat Content. Journal of Climate, 34 (13), 5555-5564.

11. Jin, Y.*, Lu, Z., & Liu, Z. (2020). Controls of spring persistence barrier strength in different ENSO regimes and implications for 21st century changes. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL088010. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088010.

10. Jin, Y.*, Z. Liu, Z. Lu, C. He (2019). Seasonal cycle of background in the tropical Pacific as a cause of ENSO Spring Persistence Barrier. Geophysical Research Letters, doi: 10.1029/2019gl085205.

9. Jin, Y.*, Liu, Z. & Rong, X (2019). General seasonal phase-locking of variance and persistence: application to tropical pacific, north pacific and global ocean. Climate Dynamics, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04659-7.

8. Liu Z*, Jin, Y.*, Rong X (2019). A theory for the seasonal predictability barrier: threshold, timing, and intensity. Journal of Climate, 32:423-443, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0383.1.

7. Jin, Y., Rong X, Liu Z (2018). Potential predictability and forecast skill in ensemble climate forecast: a skill-persistence rule. Climate Dynamics, 51:2725, https ://doi.org/10.1007/s0038 2-017-4040-z.


合作文章

6. Wang, Z., Zhang, S., Jin, Y., Jia, Y., Yu, Y., Gao, Y., ... & Wu, L. (2023). Monthly-scale extended predictions using the atmospheric model coupled with a slab ocean. Geoscientific Model Development, 16(2), 705-717.

5. Yang, G., Li, M., Zhang, S., Jin, Y., Zhu, C., Wang, Z., ... & Chen, Y. (2022). An assessment of the simulation of East-Asia precipitation in the high-resolution community earth system model. Climate Dynamics, 1-19.

4. Ren, X., Zhang, L., Cai, W., Li, X., Wang, C. Y., Jin, Y., & Wu, L. (2022). Influence of tropical Atlantic meridional dipole of sea surface temperature anomalies on Antarctic autumn sea ice. Environmental Research Letters, 17(9), 094046.

3. He C, et al. including Jin, Y. (2021). Deglacial variability of South China hydroclimate heavily contributed by autumn rainfall. Nature Communications, 12:1-9, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-26106-0.

2. He C, et al. including Jin, Y. (2020) .North Atlantic subsurface temperature response controlled by effective freshwater input in “Heinrich” events. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 539 (2020): 116247.

1. Zhao Y, Liu Z, Zheng F, Jin, Y. (2019). Parameter Optimization for Real World ENSO Forecast in an Intermediate Coupled Model. Monthly Weather Review, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0199.1.





联系方式：

 山东省青岛市崂山区松岭路238号中国海洋大学物理海洋教育部重点实验,邮编：266100

 Email: jinyishuai@ouc.edu.cn